Bookmaker's odds: calibration plot


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Using Data to Analyse Team Formations

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I recently presented a research paper at the FC Barcelona Sports Analytics Summit on detecting and analysing team formations using tracking data (click here and scroll down to find the paper). I thought it would be nice to publish a shorter version on my blog. The work, which was awarded the "best research paper" prize at the conference, was done in collaboration with Mark Glickman at the Harvard Sports Analytics Lab. Too long? You can take a look at the poster version here , or the cartoon version here . Introduction A vital aspect of a football manager’s job is to select team formations – the spatial configuration of the players on the field. The choice of formation determines player roles, how they interact, and influences the playing style of both teams during a match. Despite their central role in team strategy, descriptions of formations are largely reliant on classifications based on the number of defenders, midfielders and forwards: crude summaries of pla...
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Structure in football: putting formations into context

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This article was published as a chapter in the FC Barcelona Innovation Hub Football Analytics Guide, 2020. The Guide is freely available for download by filling out the online form here . Links to other work cited in this chapter are given at the end. Formations are the foundations of tactics in football. They provide structure to a team that helps the players to position themselves and broadly defines their specific roles in attack and defence. They are the means through which managers attempt to maintain control of high-value territory while denying their opponents the same.  The debate around formation tactics is as old as the game itself and is a central theme in the history of how the game is played. Innovations in formations have mirrored the evolving balance between defensive solidarity and attacking flair, discipline and freedom of expression and outcomes versus entertainment. From the early 2-3-5 ‘pyramid’ in the late 1800s to the more balanced W-M formation of Herber...
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From Sessegnon to Sanchez: How to calculate the correct market salary for EPL players.

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In the 2018 January transfer window, Manchester United signed Alexis Sanchez on a four-and-a-half year contract. He had just turned 29, which is  towards the end of the peak years for an elite forward. Yet Ed Woodward made him the highest paid player in the country, offering him a reported £350,000 per week , which equates to £18.2 million per year, or £82 million over the duration of the contract (before bonuses and signing-on fee). United have undoubtedly received a spectacularly poor return on their acquisition. Granted, Sanchez has had his fair share of injuries, but it is clear that United chose to massively overpay a player whose abilities were likely to decline. Putting their recruitment issues aside (for now), what would have been a more reasonable salary for an EPL player of Sanchez's age and calibre? What should Woodward have offered him? Market value salaries We can attempt to answer this question by combining two very useful datasets: the Transfermarkt.com ...
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