Bookmaker's odds: calibration plot


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Using Data to Analyse Team Formations

Image
I recently presented a research paper at the FC Barcelona Sports Analytics Summit on detecting and analysing team formations using tracking data (click here and scroll down to find the paper). I thought it would be nice to publish a shorter version on my blog. The work, which was awarded the "best research paper" prize at the conference, was done in collaboration with Mark Glickman at the Harvard Sports Analytics Lab. Too long? You can take a look at the poster version here , or the cartoon version here . Introduction A vital aspect of a football manager’s job is to select team formations – the spatial configuration of the players on the field. The choice of formation determines player roles, how they interact, and influences the playing style of both teams during a match. Despite their central role in team strategy, descriptions of formations are largely reliant on classifications based on the number of defenders, midfielders and forwards: crude summaries of pla...
Read more

Do we overestimate the impact of recent form?

Image
Form is one of the most frequently discussed concepts in football. Players, coaches, journalists and pundits routinely refer to the momentum generated by a succession of victories. Form guides are ubiquitous in pre-match reviews, the idea being that recent results are indicative of a team's chances of winning their next match. But is this idea founded in fact? Looking for the impact of form, or momentum, in football is tough. There are a multitude of confounding variables, most notably variations in the quality of opponents, the effects of home advantage, changing team selections and small sample sizes. Situations are not replicable, making it difficult to study whether win probability has been enhanced by a recent run of victories. Nevertheless, there are some simple statistical tests that we perform to try to detect whether form has any impact on outcome of subsequent matches. One test is to look at the frequency with which winning streaks occur. Streaks are a natural f...
Read more

Structure in football: putting formations into context

Image
This article was published as a chapter in the FC Barcelona Innovation Hub Football Analytics Guide, 2020. The Guide is freely available for download by filling out the online form here . Links to other work cited in this chapter are given at the end. Formations are the foundations of tactics in football. They provide structure to a team that helps the players to position themselves and broadly defines their specific roles in attack and defence. They are the means through which managers attempt to maintain control of high-value territory while denying their opponents the same.  The debate around formation tactics is as old as the game itself and is a central theme in the history of how the game is played. Innovations in formations have mirrored the evolving balance between defensive solidarity and attacking flair, discipline and freedom of expression and outcomes versus entertainment. From the early 2-3-5 ‘pyramid’ in the late 1800s to the more balanced W-M formation of Herber...
Read more