EightyFivePoints

By Andrew Puopolo,  @andrew_puopolo While it pales in comparison to the many societal, economic and public health challenges posed by the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic, the football world is grappling with the challenge of determining a suitable and equitable way for completing the remainder of their seasons. UEFA have recently published guidelines stating that "if a domestic competition is prematurely terminated for legitimate reasons" the procedure adopted by a National Association for selecting clubs for participation in 20/21 UEFA tournaments should be "based on objective, transparent and non-discriminatory principles" . Although there is still talk of playing out competitions behind closed doors, some leagues, most notably in Belgium and Scotland , have decided to end the season by ‘freezing in place’ such that the current standings become the final standings, the leaders become Champions, and the teams in the relegation zone go down. This method for set...

I recently presented a research paper at the FC Barcelona Sports Analytics Summit on detecting and analysing team formations using tracking data (click here and scroll down to find the paper). I thought it would be nice to publish a shorter version on my blog. The work, which was awarded the "best research paper" prize at the conference, was done in collaboration with Mark Glickman at the Harvard Sports Analytics Lab. Too long? You can take a look at the poster version here , or the cartoon version here . Introduction A vital aspect of a football manager’s job is to select team formations – the spatial configuration of the players on the field. The choice of formation determines player roles, how they interact, and influences the playing style of both teams during a match. Despite their central role in team strategy, descriptions of formations are largely reliant on classifications based on the number of defenders, midfielders and forwards: crude summaries of pla...

In the 2018 January transfer window, Manchester United signed Alexis Sanchez on a four-and-a-half year contract. He had just turned 29, which is  towards the end of the peak years for an elite forward. Yet Ed Woodward made him the highest paid player in the country, offering him a reported £350,000 per week , which equates to £18.2 million per year, or £82 million over the duration of the contract (before bonuses and signing-on fee). United have undoubtedly received a spectacularly poor return on their acquisition. Granted, Sanchez has had his fair share of injuries, but it is clear that United chose to massively overpay a player whose abilities were likely to decline. Putting their recruitment issues aside (for now), what would have been a more reasonable salary for an EPL player of Sanchez's age and calibre? What should Woodward have offered him? Market value salaries We can attempt to answer this question by combining two very useful datasets: the Transfermarkt.com ...

The Manchester derby on Wednesday will go a long way towards determining the outcome of the English Premier League title race this season. Liverpool are two points ahead of Manchester City, having played a game more. After Wednesday, both teams have three matches remaining: Liverpool play relegated Huddersfield at home, then Newcastle away (who are now safe from relegation), ending the season by hosting Wolves at Anfield; City play Burnley away, Leicester at home and then Brighton away. City are expected to win their last three matches, so Liverpool fans will be desperate for United to avoid defeat in the derby, which would leave Liverpool with at least a one-point lead going into the final three matches. FiveThirtyEight's model indicates that Liverpool currently have a 43% chance of winning their first English title in 29 years. If United win the derby, this increases to around 74%, or 69% if the game ends in a draw. However, if City win, Liverpool's title chances drop...