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December 2020


April 2020


May 2019

 From Sessegnon to Sanchez: How to calculate the correct market salary for EPL players.

 April 2019

 Liverpool have never been so dependent on United avoiding defeat

 March 2019

 Do we overestimate the impact of recent form? 

 October 2018

 Best Feet Forward: a willingness to wield the weaker foot

 September 2018

 Exceeding Expected Goals 

 August 2018

 Liverpool move faster than most in the market. 

 June 2018

 Inward-looking England invest in the future. 

 May 2018

 What can we expect from the 21st FIFA World Cup?

 March 2018

 Show me the Money: how much is each premier league position worth?

 February 2018

 Declining home advantage makes Mourinho's Spanish stalemate a risky strategy

Foreign leagues profit from Premier League wealth. 

 January 2018

 Consistent or Calamitous: How good is your goalie?

Hectic xmas schedule gives some teams an artificial advantage

 December 2017

 Freedom of Movement of Footballers: Brexit and the EPL

 October 2017

 Strategy for Underdogs: Does Fortune Favour the Brave?

 September 2017

 Bodies on the Line: Quantifying how defenders affect chances.

 From excess to success: Neymar, inflation and the price of an EPL title.

 August 2017

 Pundit Consensus Forecasts

 July 2017

 How are Lawrenson and Merson beating the market?

 June 2017

 Tinker, Tailor, Mould a Side: Squad Rotation in the EPL

 April 2017

 Why are EPL clubs preferring to recruit foreign managers?

 March 2017

 Keep calm and let them carry on: are mid-season sackings worth it?

 February 2017

 The Wisdom of Crowds: A Census of EPL Forecasts

 January 2017

 Poor FA Cup crowds erode home advantage

The Frequency of Winning Streaks

 December 2016

Does January transfer spending improve results?

Playing in Europe does affect domestic results in the EPL

 November 2016

Final Table Predictions for the EPL.

Elo Impact: Who are the EPL’s most effective managers?

 Wenger's winter curse.

 October 2016

 Leagues within a League: How the EPL Table Evolves

Forecasting Football: a hedgehog amongst the foxes.

The managerial merry-go-round spins ever faster.

 September 2016

English Hares and Italian Tortoises: When do goal-scorers peak?

What's the problem with English players?

Who are the EPL's most injury-prone teams? And why?

Are referees harsher to the away team?

What happens to home advantage when one team is better?

August 2016

A history of home advantage.

The general decline of the underdog.

Was Leicester's achievement last season unprecedented?

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Using Data to Analyse Team Formations

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I recently presented a research paper at the FC Barcelona Sports Analytics Summit on detecting and analysing team formations using tracking data (click here and scroll down to find the paper). I thought it would be nice to publish a shorter version on my blog. The work, which was awarded the "best research paper" prize at the conference, was done in collaboration with Mark Glickman at the Harvard Sports Analytics Lab. Too long? You can take a look at the poster version here , or the cartoon version here . Introduction A vital aspect of a football manager’s job is to select team formations – the spatial configuration of the players on the field. The choice of formation determines player roles, how they interact, and influences the playing style of both teams during a match. Despite their central role in team strategy, descriptions of formations are largely reliant on classifications based on the number of defenders, midfielders and forwards: crude summaries of pla...
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From Sessegnon to Sanchez: How to calculate the correct market salary for EPL players.

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In the 2018 January transfer window, Manchester United signed Alexis Sanchez on a four-and-a-half year contract. He had just turned 29, which is  towards the end of the peak years for an elite forward. Yet Ed Woodward made him the highest paid player in the country, offering him a reported £350,000 per week , which equates to £18.2 million per year, or £82 million over the duration of the contract (before bonuses and signing-on fee). United have undoubtedly received a spectacularly poor return on their acquisition. Granted, Sanchez has had his fair share of injuries, but it is clear that United chose to massively overpay a player whose abilities were likely to decline. Putting their recruitment issues aside (for now), what would have been a more reasonable salary for an EPL player of Sanchez's age and calibre? What should Woodward have offered him? Market value salaries We can attempt to answer this question by combining two very useful datasets: the Transfermarkt.com ...
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